Global Mobility in 2025: Navigating Geopolitical and Economic Shifts
The global landscape in 2025 presents complex challenges and opportunities for businesses, governments, and individuals navigating global mobility. This handout applies the Global Mobility Drivers to assess how geopolitical risks, economic markets, labor markets, the war for talent, and migration shape mobility trends.
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Key Takeaways for Global Mobility Leaders:
- Market Volatility Awareness: The U.S. administration’s announcement of new tariffs led to sharp declines in Asian and European stock markets, with investors seeking safe-haven assets like gold. This underscores the need for Global Mobility leaders to monitor geopolitical events closely, as such developments can lead to sudden economic shifts affecting business operations and employee mobility.
- Strategic Planning for Mobility Programs: The imposition of tariffs and the resultant market reactions may influence corporate decisions regarding international assignments, expansions, or relocations. GM leaders should assess how these economic changes impact cost structures and the feasibility of current or planned mobility programs.
- Risk Management and Compliance: With tariffs introduced on over 180 countries and territories, there is an increased need for compliance with evolving trade regulations. GM leaders must ensure that mobility policies remain compliant and consider potential risks associated with assignments in affected regions.
- Employee Support and Communication: The economic uncertainty caused by such geopolitical actions can affect assignees’ morale and financial well-being. Transparent communication and support structures are vital to address concerns and maintain engagement among mobile employees.
Geopolitical Risk Dashboards
The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Dashboard is an analytical tool designed to monitor and assess market attention to top geopolitical risks. It utilizes the BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI), which tracks the frequency and sentiment of brokerage reports and financial news related to specific geopolitical events. This indicator provides a score reflecting the level of market focus on each risk compared to a five-year historical baseline. The dashboard offers insights into these risks’ likelihood and potential market impacts, aiding investors in understanding how geopolitical developments may influence financial markets.
Geopolitical Risk Dashboard | BlackRock Investment Institute
The International SOS Risk Outlook 2025 report, developed in partnership with Ipsos, draws on the expertise of over 800 global leaders and specialists to identify key risks that will impact organizations in 2025. While the full report requires registration for access, it serves as an invaluable resource for leaders navigating uncertain times by highlighting emerging threats and trends in health and security.
International SOS Risk Outlook
https://www.internationalsos.com/risk-outlook
Applying the Four Global Mobility Drivers
1. Market: Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact on Global Mobility
Key Trends:
- Geopolitical Instability: Conflicts in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Asia continue to disrupt economic and migration flows.
- Regulatory Shifts: Countries increasingly implement restrictive visa policies and foreign worker quotas in response to security concerns and economic pressures.
- Trade and Sanctions: Tariffs and export controls impact talent movement in key industries such as technology and manufacturing.
Global Mobility Implications:
- Companies must adopt agile mobility strategies to navigate political uncertainty.
- Employers must factor in risk assessments for expatriate assignments in volatile regions.
- Regional hubs (e.g., Singapore, Dubai, and Canada) are emerging as safe alternatives for talent relocation.
2. Sourcing: Economic Markets and Mobility Decisions
Key Trends:
- Slowing Global Growth: The IMF projects slower growth in major economies, influencing corporate expansion plans.
- Inflation and Interest Rates: Persistent inflation and high borrowing costs reduce disposable income and impact relocation budgets.
- Supply Chain Resilience: Companies invest in nearshoring strategies, regionalising workforce needs.
Global Mobility Implications:
- Cost-of-living adjustments are essential for international assignments.
- Tax regulations and currency fluctuations impact salary structures and benefits.
- Organizations must rethink compensation strategies to maintain competitiveness.
3. Talent: Labor Markets and the War for Talent
Key Trends:
- Aging Workforce: Developed economies face increasing skill shortages due to demographic shifts.
- AI and Automation: Digital transformation reshapes skill demand, increasing mobility for tech talent.
- Hybrid and Remote Work: Employees demand greater flexibility, reshaping traditional mobility patterns.
Global Mobility Implications:
- Organizations need to enhance Global Talent Acquisition Strategies to attract mobile workers.
- Upskilling and reskilling initiatives are critical for workforce adaptability.
- Employers must consider Employee Experience & Well-being in relocation policies to retain talent.
4. Lifestyle: Migration Trends and Workforce Distribution
Key Trends:
- South-North Migration: Economic instability in developing regions accelerates migration to high-income countries.
- Tightening Immigration Policies: Governments balance workforce needs with political pressures, leading to more selective migration policies.
- Climate Migration: Environmental factors increasingly drive displacement and workforce shifts.
Global Mobility Implications:
- Companies must engage in Strategic Workforce Planning to anticipate talent shortages and migration-driven workforce changes.
- Compliance with evolving immigration laws is crucial for business continuity.
- Governments and businesses need to collaborate on inclusive migration frameworks.
Four C-Model
1. Compliance: Navigating Regulatory Challenges
- Geopolitical instability means increased scrutiny on work permits and tax compliance.
- Stricter immigration policies require organizations to stay ahead of regulatory changes.
- Hybrid work models create new legal considerations for tax residency and labor laws.
- Sanctions and trade restrictions affect assignment feasibility in high-risk regions.
➡ Action: Companies need proactive legal and tax compliance monitoring to manage risks.
2. Costs: Managing Economic Pressures
- Inflation and rising living costs impact relocation budgets.
- Higher interest rates reduce expat housing affordability.
- Cost-effective alternatives (e.g., virtual assignments, localization) are gaining traction.
- Governments adjusting tax incentives for expatriates influence relocation decisions.
➡ Action: Employers should rethink compensation structures and optimize relocation budgets.
3. Careers: Winning the War for Talent
- Skill shortages and demographic shifts require strategic workforce mobility.
- AI and automation reshape job roles, increasing demand for global digital talent.
- Flexibility expectations challenge traditional expatriate assignments.
- Upskilling and career development are key to talent retention.
➡ Action: Companies should design career-enhancing global mobility programs that align talent development with business needs.
4. Care: Duty of Care & Employee Well-being
- Rising geopolitical risks require enhanced security measures for expatriates.
- Health and safety concerns—including access to medical care, mental health support, and crisis management—are now top priorities.
- Climate risks and natural disasters impact mobility decisions.
- Psychosocial support for expats and families is essential for successful assignments.
➡ Action: Companies must strengthen duty of care policies, including 24/7 risk monitoring, mental health support, and emergency response planning.
Further Resources
Handout 160_Where Does Global Mobility Stand in February 2025
Video: Angie Weinberger’s webinar on 10 March 2025: Filling the Career Gap through Global Mobility Coaching